Catbert tackles HR initiatives

In honor of Labor Day in the U.S., let's take a humor break from research and high-tech developments. In case you're not a regular Dilbert reader, Catbert (Evil Director of Human Resources) has recently gotten involved in three popular HR initiatives, with varying levels of success:

Workforce skill assessment ("strengths" fans take note)

Internal promotions

Employee surveys

Silver tsunami or gradual graying?

There are strong opinions about the upcoming "retirement wave" of the Baby Boom generation--some think employers are in big trouble as they will be forced to replace a huge number of workers with an inadequate supply, while others claim it's an overreaction. Some recent news adds credence to the latter viewpoint, at least in one sector.

According to a recent article published by the Partnership for Public Service, in 2006 and 2007 there were fewer retirements in the federal government than projected. Not only that, but the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) adjusted their retirement projections downward.

Why the change? It's the economy, stupid--or at least that's the theory. The price of gas, the housing market crash, and the reduction in pension value have all contributed to people hanging in there a little longer.

One important caveat: it depends on the job. And here's where we still have reason for concern:

"The ones most able to ignore the current economic problems are those who possess specialized and marketable skills, or who are in the higher-income brackets and can afford to weather the downturn, experts say."

This includes high-demand occupations like IT as well as those with substantial management experience.

It's also quite possible we just haven't seen the tip of the tsunami yet. But it's looking more and more likely that if economic conditions persist, we may actually experience more of a gradual graying.

2008 PTC-NC Conference, Day 1

On March 20th and 21st I was lucky enough to attend (and present) at the 2008 PTC-NC Conference. There were several great presentations and I'm going to break the summary up into two days for ya.

The conference started off with Michael Harris, professor of International Business at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, with an update on what the courts have been saying in the area of adverse impact and employment testing. Some major points:

- Although criterion-related validity has been discussed a lot lately, Dr. Harris predicted that a content validation strategy will continue to be the most popular choice of employers.

- They're not perfect, but courts will continue to rely on the Uniform Guidelines when judging employers' efforts to validate their tests.

- Employers should be prepared to answer what alternative tests they considered before choosing the ones they did (the third prong of this type of case).

The next session was a breakout, with Chris Wright and Louis Xavier (SF State) presenting on stereotype threat while I went over the results of a demographic analysis I conducted on applicants to an on-line T&E system. Bottom line of my presentation: there were some clear demographic differences in the jobs applied for but actual instances of adverse impact (using 4/5ths rule) were rare.

Next up was another breakout, with Jim Kuthy (Biddle) presenting on AutoGOJA while Shelley Langan (CPS) presented on succession planning. I attended Shelley's, which focused on the importance of workforce planning given current demographics and provided some practical tips on how to put together a successful plan. Some key takeaways: limit succession planning to certain positions, consider inviting everyone to apply, and conduct a future-oriented job analysis as part of your planning process.

The last breakout featured an introduction to competency modeling by Nathan Ainspan (independent consultant) and a presentation on using personality testing by Shelley Langan and Howard Fortson (CPS). I attended the latter, where we had a spirited discussion of the state of personality testing and how to introduce personality testing to your selection process (hint: rhymes with job analysis). Example business measures they mentioned included the CPI, HPI, NEO, and 16-PF. They also mentioned an upcoming article by Hough & Oswald where the authors list all of the various outcomes that personality tests have been able to successfully predict.

Last but not least that day was an outstanding keynote address by James Outtz, president of Outtz and Associates and international expert on employment testing and discrimination. Dr. Outtz went over a wide range of issues related to those subjects, including the balance between validity and adverse impact (so well covered in the most recent issue of Personnel Psychology). He introduced some fascinating research that showed that while multiple choice formats showed adverse impact against African Americans and Hispanics (favoring Caucasians and Asians), the opposite was the case for multiple list (divergent) items. Perhaps most interesting was his description of a questionnaire he developed called the Job Perception Index that served as both a realistic job preview and a selection device for firefighter positions. Some great stuff from a fabulous speaker.

That's it for now--those of you that attended, feel free to comment or add! Tomorrow: Day 2.

Applied Workforce Planning: Air Traffic Controllers

There's plenty of disagreement over whether the aging of the U.S. workforce will indeed spark a wave of simultaneous retirements and thus a scramble to replace employees. Personally, I think it's going to depend on a lot of factors--the housing market, health care costs, and technological advancements to name a few.

But there are instances that demonstrate what it could look like if a significant portion of the U.S. workforce retires. One of those instances is the air traffic controllers who work for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and were the subject of a recent piece on NPR. Let's look at the situation and the implications:

- In the summer of 1981, President Ronald Reagan replaced 12,000 striking air traffic controllers all at once. When you make such a large number of hires, in the same classification, with a lot of them probably being around the same age, in public sector (where folks often stick around for a long time), you better be thinking about workforce planning.

- Thirty percent more controllers retired last year than the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) predicted. That's significant, and whether it's due to insufficient planning or not, it provides an example of the scope of the problem we're facing.

- Last year the FAA imposed a new labor contract on the controllers which lowered pay for new hires, froze pay for those with longevity, and placed new restrictions on the working environment. Not a great way to attract new candidates into a field where you need a high number of replacements in a short period of time.

- According to the union, employees feel stretched and burned out, which may lead to a serious accident. Not the type of publicity that demonstrates an outstanding employer brand.


Lessons? Like politics, all workforce planning is local. And yes, it's an inexact science. But sometimes the numbers just hit you over the head and demand attention. Do you have a situation like this in your organization? If so, what are you doing about it?

Great July 2007 Issues of Merit

The U.S. Merit Systems Protections Board (MSPB) puts out a great newsletter focused on staffing called Issues of Merit.

The July 2007 edition has some great stuff in it, including:

- Risks inherent with using self-assessment for high-stakes decisions, such as hiring (hint: people are horrible at it)

- Tips for workforce planning

- How to write good questions

- Analyzing entry hires into the federal workforce

- An introduction to work sample tests

Good stuff!